Sivasspor 1-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Hatayspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Sivasspor have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sivasspor, 0 for Hatayspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 68% and Hatayspor 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Hatayspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.14 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.801 / defence 0.899 | Hatayspor attack 0.685 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.256. Data: 45 Sivasspor games / 44 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: Sivasspor 70% | Hatayspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Sivasspor 1.14 / Hatayspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.801 / def 0.899 | Hatayspor attack 0.685 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hatayspor xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 44% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sivasspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.80) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
1.92
0.77
Hatayspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.77 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 14W 16D 14L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 20L across 44 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.32 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 7W 12D 3L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.32 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 68%, Hatayspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sivasspor) and 46% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 41% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sivasspor's recent games and 46% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Sivasspor 1-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.14 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Hatayspor attack 0.69 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Hatayspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.32 PPG, Hatayspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.