Sivasspor 4-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hatayspor at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Hatayspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 1L across 7 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hatayspor — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 69% and Hatayspor 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 46% | Hatayspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.03 xG and Hatayspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.939 / defence 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.891 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.118. Data: 13 Sivasspor games / 13 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 57% | Hatayspor 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Sivasspor 1.03 / Hatayspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.939 / def 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.891 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hatayspor xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Sivasspor 4 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 34% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sivasspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.94) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.24
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.07
1.04
Hatayspor xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.04 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 2W 7D 4L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 3L across 13 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hatayspor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sivasspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 1W 5D 0L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.77 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hatayspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 2W 7D 4L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 67%, Hatayspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Sivasspor and 17% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sivasspor's recent games and 17% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Hatayspor 4-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.03 xG and Hatayspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Hatayspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 34% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 35%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Hatayspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.