Sivasspor 3-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Hatayspor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.40 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Hatayspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 49% | Hatayspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.918 / defence 1.022 | Hatayspor attack 0.899 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.281. Data: 46 Sivasspor games / 45 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 40% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Hatayspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 50% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 40% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sivasspor 1.35 / Hatayspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.918 / def 1.022 | Hatayspor attack 0.899 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hatayspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Sivasspor 3 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 40% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sivasspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 3 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.92) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.53
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.18
Hatayspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.18 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 16W 13D 16L from 45 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 19L across 45 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.36 PPG, Hatayspor on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 2W 8D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 17D 19L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 54%, Hatayspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sivasspor) and 41% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 46% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sivasspor's recent games and 41% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Hatayspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Hatayspor 3-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 40% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 32%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 49%, Hatayspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.36 PPG, Hatayspor 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.