Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 2.30 (Fenerbahçe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 63% and Fenerbahçe 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 57% | Fenerbahçe 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.29 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / defence 0.860 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.286 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.392. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Sivasspor games / 67 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 32% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 43%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 32% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Sivasspor 1.29 / Fenerbahçe 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / def 0.860 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.286 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fenerbahçe xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Sivasspor 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 32% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
32%
3.14
25%
4.01
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.54
Fenerbahçe xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.54 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 24W 19D 24L from 67 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 41W 14D 12L across 67 games — 2.04 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sivasspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 11W 14D 7L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 19W 7D 6L across 32 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 24W 19D 24L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 14D 12L in their last 67 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.47 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
3
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 66%, Fenerbahçe at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 66% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Sivasspor's games and 69% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sivasspor's matches and 66% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 1-3 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.29 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.54 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.29 / defence 0.73, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 32% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 57%, Fenerbahçe 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.