Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 66%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sivasspor welcome Antalyaspor to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sivasspor at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sivasspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Antalyaspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Antalyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Sivasspor.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2024, ended Sivasspor 1–2 Antalyaspor — a Antalyaspor win.
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Antalyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Antalyaspor 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Antalyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 2.20 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.142 / defence 1.133 | Antalyaspor attack 0.721 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.162. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sivasspor's projected output up. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 69 games and Antalyaspor's last 68.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 66% | Draw 19% | Antalyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.52 | Draw 5.23 | Antalyaspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 66% | Draw 19% | Antalyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sivasspor 2.20 / Antalyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.142 / def 1.133 | Antalyaspor attack 0.721 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Sivasspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 66% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sivasspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (1.14) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 69 games and Antalyaspor's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.23
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.15
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
11%
9.06
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
60.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 22W 18D 28L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 23W 20D 25L from 68 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.24 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 34 home games (13W 12D 9L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 9D 19L from their last 34 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Sivasspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 18D 28L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 62%, Antalyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 53% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sivasspor's games and 56% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sivasspor's recent games and 53% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 85% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 2.20 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 66% | Draw 19% | Antalyaspor 15%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Antalyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.24 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.