Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 4 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Samsunspor have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Samsunspor have won 1, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Samsunspor 3–1 Trabzonspor — a Samsunspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 50% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 44% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.155 / defence 0.939 | Trabzonspor attack 1.020 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.209. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 54 games and Trabzonspor's last 54.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.80 | Draw 4.04 | Trabzonspor 5.05. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Samsunspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Samsunspor 2.01 / Trabzonspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.155 / def 0.939 | Trabzonspor attack 1.020 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 55% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Samsunspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 54 games and Trabzonspor's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
37.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.16 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 20W 13D 21L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 18L across 54 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.35 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 14W 7D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 20W 13D 21L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 11D 18L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.81 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from January 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 48%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Samsunspor) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Samsunspor's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 69% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.35 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.