Samsunspor 2-3 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rizespor away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Samsunspor's favour (2.00 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Samsunspor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Samsunspor 1–0 Rizespor — a Samsunspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Rizespor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 44% | Rizespor 57%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.07 xG and Rizespor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.109 / defence 0.850 | Rizespor attack 0.950 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.208. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 61 games and Rizespor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.62 | Draw 4.55 | Rizespor 6.18. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Samsunspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Samsunspor 2.07 / Rizespor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.109 / def 0.850 | Rizespor attack 0.950 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Samsunspor 2 - 3 Rizespor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 62% chance of winning, Rizespor a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.95x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 61 games and Rizespor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.55
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.04
0.97
Rizespor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
48.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.97 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 14D 22L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (22W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.26 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 3D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 22W 11D 28L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.93 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 67% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Samsunspor's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Samsunspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 90% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Samsunspor 2-3 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.07 xG and Rizespor 0.97 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.46 PPG, Rizespor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.