Samsunspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Samsunspor's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Konyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Samsunspor 60% and Konyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Konyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.67 xG and Konyaspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.184 | Konyaspor attack 0.959 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.266. Data: 15 Samsunspor games / 51 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 43% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 71% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 43% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Samsunspor 1.67 / Konyaspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.976 / def 1.184 | Konyaspor attack 0.959 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 43% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Samsunspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.96x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 15/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.10
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.11
1.44
Konyaspor xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.44 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 4W 2D 9L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Samsunspor against 0.93 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Samsunspor, 71% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Samsunspor and 57% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Samsunspor's games and 71% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Samsunspor's matches and 57% of Konyaspor's.
Do Samsunspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.67 xG and Konyaspor 1.44 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 43% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 33%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Konyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 0.93 PPG, Konyaspor 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.