Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Alanyaspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Alanyaspor — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Samsunspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Alanyaspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 56% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.25 xG and Alanyaspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.419 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Samsunspor games / 43 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 33% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 70% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 33% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Samsunspor 1.25 / Alanyaspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / def 1.419 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Alanyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.80) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.90
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Alanyaspor xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.45 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 13D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 10W 19D 14L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.21 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 12D 6L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 52%, Alanyaspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Samsunspor) and 48% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Samsunspor's games and 71% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Samsunspor's recent games and 48% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.