Rizespor 0-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 3W 4D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Samsunspor are 0.70 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Samsunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.98 xG and Samsunspor 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.791 / defence 1.178 | Samsunspor attack 1.039 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.277. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Rizespor games / 43 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 23% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.00. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rizespor 40% | Samsunspor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 23% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 0.98 / Samsunspor 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.791 / def 1.178 | Samsunspor attack 1.039 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 0 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 23% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.79) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.04x) against Rizespor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
23%
4.36
27%
3.70
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.55
1.56
Samsunspor xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.56 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 9D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (14W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Rizespor against 1.21 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.81 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Rizespor 4-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Rizespor) and 43% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 29% of games; Samsunspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 52% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Rizespor's recent games and 43% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Rizespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.98 xG and Samsunspor 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 23% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 50%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.26 PPG, Samsunspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.