Rizespor 1-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 46%, yet in-form Kayserispor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Kayserispor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kayserispor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 46% versus Kayserispor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 69% | Kayserispor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.939 / defence 1.272 | Kayserispor attack 0.937 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.085. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Rizespor games / 13 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 28%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Kayserispor 3.57. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kayserispor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Kayserispor 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Rizespor 1.70 / Kayserispor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.939 / def 1.272 | Kayserispor attack 0.937 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Kayserispor xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kayserispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 46% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rizespor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.94x) against Rizespor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.93
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
Kayserispor xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.29 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 2W 1D 10L from 13 games, a 0.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 5L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kayserispor by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.54 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kayserispor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.17 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Kayserispor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Kayserispor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 50% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rizespor's games and 67% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Kayserispor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kayserispor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Kayserispor attack 0.94 / defence 1.55, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 69%, Kayserispor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.