Rizespor 3-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Kayserispor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kayserispor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Kayserispor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Kayserispor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Kayserispor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.28 xG and Kayserispor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.944 / defence 1.013 | Kayserispor attack 0.910 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.291. Data: 50 Rizespor games / 50 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 33%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Kayserispor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Kayserispor 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Rizespor 1.28 / Kayserispor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.944 / def 1.013 | Kayserispor attack 0.910 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kayserispor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Rizespor 3 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kayserispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rizespor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.91x) against Rizespor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.26
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Kayserispor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.19 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 19W 9D 22L from 50 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 19L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Rizespor against 1.14 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.14 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 19W 9D 22L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kayserispor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.80 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Kayserispor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 36%, Kayserispor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 56% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 32% of games; Kayserispor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Rizespor's recent matches and 56% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 56% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kayserispor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.28 xG and Kayserispor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 33%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Kayserispor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.32 PPG, Kayserispor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.