Ümraniyespor 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu to face Ümraniyespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Ümraniyespor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Ümraniyespor against 0.90 for Konyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Konyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ümraniyespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ümraniyespor — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 68% versus Konyaspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 60% | Konyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.835 / defence 1.181 | Konyaspor attack 1.078 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.295. Data: 25 Ümraniyespor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 80% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.37 / Konyaspor 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.835 / def 1.181 | Konyaspor attack 1.078 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor?
Ümraniyespor 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Ümraniyespor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ümraniyespor's attack rating (0.83) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.08x) against Ümraniyespor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.12
24%
4.17
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.65
Konyaspor xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.65 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 5W 7D 13L from 25 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 7L across 25 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 2W 3D 7L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 4W 5D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 7D 13L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.75 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Ümraniyespor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Konyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Ümraniyespor 2-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 67%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ümraniyespor and 58% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ümraniyespor's games and 50% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 58% of Konyaspor's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor and Konyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.65 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Konyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 32% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 44%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 60%, Konyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.