Ümraniyespor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ümraniyespor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Adana Demirspor make the trip to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu to face Ümraniyespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Ümraniyespor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ümraniyespor's home record at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu this season.

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Adana Demirspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ümraniyespor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ümraniyespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ümraniyespor 67% and Adana Demirspor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 62% | Adana Demirspor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.02 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.722 / defence 1.351 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.066 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.340. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Ümraniyespor games / 59 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 20% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 59%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights