Konyaspor 0-1 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees İstanbulspor travel to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Thursday 2 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, İstanbulspor have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 0.90 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 1, İstanbulspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 4–0 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 50% versus İstanbulspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 40% | İstanbulspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.71 xG and İstanbulspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.770 / defence 0.965 | İstanbulspor attack 0.737 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.416. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. İstanbulspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Konyaspor games / 20 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | İstanbulspor 4.55. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | İstanbulspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Konyaspor 1.71 / İstanbulspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.770 / def 0.965 | İstanbulspor attack 0.737 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.01
İstanbulspor xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 2 February 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 İstanbulspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 53% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.77) and İstanbulspor's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.01
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.72
1.01
İstanbulspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
25.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.01 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 6W 9D 5L from 20 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
İstanbulspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 13L across 20 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 3W 4D 3L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
İstanbulspor's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 4W 3D 13L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.30 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2022, when Konyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-0 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 40%, İstanbulspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Konyaspor) and 60% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; İstanbulspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Konyaspor's recent games and 60% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as İstanbulspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.71 xG and İstanbulspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against İstanbulspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | İstanbulspor 22%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a İstanbulspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 40%, İstanbulspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with İstanbulspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.