Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.818 / defence 1.053 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 26% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 48%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.08. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 26% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Konyaspor 1.03 / Fenerbahçe 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.818 / def 1.053 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Fenerbahçe xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 26% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.82) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.16x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
26%
3.82
26%
3.84
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.49
Fenerbahçe xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.49 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 10W 10D 17L from 37 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 3L across 37 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 63% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 63% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.