Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Konyaspor's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Beşiktaş 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.07 xG and Beşiktaş 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 1.053 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 39%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.07 / Beşiktaş 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.816 / def 1.053 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Beşiktaş xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 6W.
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.93x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.50
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.26
1.20
Beşiktaş xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.20 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 10D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş's form line: 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Beşiktaş 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 33%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.