Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 41%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Alanyaspor — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Alanyaspor, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Konyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Alanyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.10 xG and Alanyaspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.716 / defence 0.835 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.187. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Konyaspor games / 43 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Konyaspor 1.10 / Alanyaspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.716 / def 0.835 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Alanyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 6W.
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.72x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.22
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.94
0.84
Alanyaspor xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.84 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 12D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (10W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.07 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (3W 12D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 18D 14L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 48%, Alanyaspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 48% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Konyaspor's games and 71% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 48% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.