Kayserispor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Konyaspor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Kayserispor, 1.00 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Konyaspor, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Kayserispor 0–0 Konyaspor — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 52% | Konyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.729 / defence 1.275 | Konyaspor attack 0.787 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.250. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Konyaspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.14 | Draw 3.25 | Konyaspor 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Konyaspor 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Kayserispor 1.14 / Konyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.729 / def 1.275 | Konyaspor attack 0.787 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kayserispor and Konyaspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Kayserispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.73) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.79x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Konyaspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.25
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.25
Konyaspor xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.25 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 20D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 58 outings (15W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.10 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kayserispor's home form reads 7W 12D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.14 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
4
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 55%, Konyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kayserispor) and 41% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 31% of games; Konyaspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 52% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kayserispor's recent games and 41% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 66% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.73 / defence 1.27 against Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 52%, Konyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.07 PPG, Konyaspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.