Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Stadium plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at Kadir Has Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Fatih Karagümrük hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.781 / defence 1.368 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.822 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.194. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Kayserispor games / 26 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.781 / def 1.368 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.822 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fatih Karagümrük xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 37% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (7 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 4W.
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.82x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.22
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.34 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 3W 11D 12L from 26 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 17L across 26 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Kayserispor against 0.65 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 3D 7L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.92 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 3W 11D 12L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kayserispor's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 0.75 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
4
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kayserispor and 67% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kayserispor's games and 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kayserispor's matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.82 / defence 1.40, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 0.77 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.