Kayserispor 0-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kayserispor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Kayserispor (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kayserispor's home record at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Kayserispor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 58% versus Beşiktaş 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 54% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.22 xG and Beşiktaş 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.006 / defence 1.208 | Beşiktaş attack 0.974 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.295. Data: 43 Kayserispor games / 43 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 80% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Kayserispor 1.22 / Beşiktaş 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.006 / def 1.208 | Beşiktaş attack 0.974 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Kayserispor 0 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kayserispor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 5W.
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.97x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.71
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.52
Beşiktaş xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.52 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 15D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.60 PPG from 43 outings (20W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 6W 9D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.47 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.29 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 24 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
1
Draws
9
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 62%, Beşiktaş 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kayserispor) and 48% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kayserispor's games and 52% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kayserispor's recent games and 48% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Kayserispor 0-3 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.22 xG and Beşiktaş 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.01 / defence 1.21 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 54%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.