Kayserispor 1-0 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Kayserispor welcome Altay to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 5W 3D 1L at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kayserispor, 1 for Altay and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Altay winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Altay in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 53% and Altay 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Altay 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.73 xG and Altay 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.056 / defence 0.847 | Altay attack 0.783 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.101. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Kayserispor games / 19 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 61% | Draw 24% | Altay 15%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Altay 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 44% | Altay 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 61% | Draw 24% | Altay 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Kayserispor 1.73 / Altay 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.056 / def 0.847 | Altay attack 0.783 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Altay xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Altay kick off?
Kayserispor vs Altay kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Altay?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Altay.
Where is Kayserispor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Altay part of?
Kayserispor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 61% chance of winning, Altay a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kayserispor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Altay 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Altay in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Altay (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.06) and Altay's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.10
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.46
0.73
Altay xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
37.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.73 for Altay, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Altay?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 11L across 19 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.26 PPG, Altay on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Altay's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.21 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Altay in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Altay away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.00 PPG; Altay away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Altay been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Altay in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Altay runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kayserispor
0
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 1, Altay have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 9 January 2022, when Kayserispor 1-0 Altay.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Altay see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 44%, Altay 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kayserispor) and 67% (Altay). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Altay in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Kayserispor's games and 67% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Kayserispor's matches and 67% of Altay's.
Do Kayserispor and Altay tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Altay in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Altay 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Altay 1-0 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.73 xG and Altay 0.73 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Altay attack 0.78 / defence 1.41, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 61% | Draw 24% | Altay 15%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Altay 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Altay's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.26 PPG, Altay 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.