Kayserispor 0-4 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Kayserispor welcome Alanyaspor to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kayserispor at 1.40 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Alanyaspor have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Kayserispor.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 1–3 with Alanyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 59% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 64% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 2.25 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.067 / defence 0.836 | Alanyaspor attack 1.015 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.371. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Kayserispor games / 71 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 62% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Alanyaspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 62% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Kayserispor 2.25 / Alanyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.067 / def 0.836 | Alanyaspor attack 1.015 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Kayserispor 0 - 4 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 62% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kayserispor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.07) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
62%
1.62
20%
5.13
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.41
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
11%
9.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
2%
50.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.16 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 70 games, going 27W 15D 28L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.41 PPG from 70 outings (28W 15D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.37 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kayserispor's home form reads 19W 5D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (11W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.63 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 27W 15D 28L in their last 70 games (1.37 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 28W 15D 27L in their last 70 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.82 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Alanyaspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Kayserispor and 65% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 59% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Kayserispor's matches and 65% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 0-4 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 2.25 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 62% | Draw 20% | Alanyaspor 19%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 64%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.37 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.