Kasımpaşa 1-5 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Kasımpaşa's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 2–0 Trabzonspor — a Kasımpaşa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 55% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 55% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.184 / defence 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.904 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.339. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 39 games and Trabzonspor's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.05 | Draw 3.62 | Trabzonspor 4.26. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 80% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Kasımpaşa 39 games, Trabzonspor 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 4 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.97 / Trabzonspor 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.184 / def 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.904 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 5 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 4) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 49% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.18x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.90x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 39 games and Trabzonspor's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.62
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.32
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.36 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 9D 16L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 12L from their last 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.39 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Kasımpaşa 1-5 Trabzonspor on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Kasımpaşa, 72% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Kasımpaşa and 72% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Kasımpaşa's games and 72% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 72% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 89% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-5 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.36 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Trabzonspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 55%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.26 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.