Kasımpaşa 1-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Kasımpaşa welcome Gaziantep FK to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.50 (Gaziantep FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Gaziantep FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 60% versus Gaziantep FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.046 / defence 1.444 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.041 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.267. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Kasımpaşa games / 45 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 41%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | Gaziantep FK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Gaziantep FK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.83 / Gaziantep FK 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.046 / def 1.444 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.041 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Gaziantep FK xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 38% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 41% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
38%
2.64
21%
4.66
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.74
1.91
Gaziantep FK xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.91 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 8D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 15W 12D 18L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.38 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 4D 16L from 22 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.36 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 8D 19L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.41 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Gaziantep FK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kasımpaşa and 59% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 54% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 59% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.91 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.05 / defence 1.44 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 41%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.