Kasımpaşa 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Kasımpaşa, 1.50 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Alanyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kasımpaşa 0W, Alanyaspor 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 58% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 46% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.080 / defence 1.278 | Alanyaspor attack 1.174 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.089. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Kasımpaşa games / 24 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.51 / Alanyaspor 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.080 / def 1.278 | Alanyaspor attack 1.174 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Alanyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 35% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.17x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
35%
2.87
25%
4.00
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.14
1.63
Alanyaspor xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.63 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 6D 11L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.67 points per game from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 1.63 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.08 / defence 1.28 against Alanyaspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.22, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 40%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 46%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.