Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Kasımpaşa, 1.70 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 3–3 Alanyaspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 64% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Alanyaspor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.212 / defence 1.399 | Alanyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.190. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 59 games and Alanyaspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.75 | Alanyaspor 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.83 / Alanyaspor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.212 / def 1.399 | Alanyaspor attack 0.888 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 44% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.89x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 59 games and Alanyaspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.75
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.31
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.48 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 12D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.15 PPG from 59 outings (17W 17D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.15 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 12W 5D 12L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 29 away games (5W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 21W 12D 26L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.41 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won Kasımpaşa 4-1 Alanyaspor on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 69%, Alanyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kasımpaşa and 62% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 52% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 62% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 71% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Alanyaspor 1.48 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.40 against Alanyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.