Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Kasımpaşa, 1.70 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Kasımpaşa 2W, Alanyaspor 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 64% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Alanyaspor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.212 / defence 1.399 | Alanyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.190. Data: 59 Kasımpaşa games / 59 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Alanyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Alanyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.83 / Alanyaspor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.212 / def 1.399 | Alanyaspor attack 0.888 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 44% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.89x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.75
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.31
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.48 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 12D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.15 PPG from 59 outings (17W 17D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.15 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 12W 5D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 21W 12D 26L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.41 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 69%, Alanyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kasımpaşa and 62% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 52% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 62% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.83 xG and Alanyaspor 1.48 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.40 against Alanyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.