Hatayspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 51%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 21 as Hatayspor welcome Trabzonspor to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 52% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 57% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.81 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.849 / defence 0.970 | Trabzonspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.371. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Hatayspor games / 57 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 4.00. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.81 / Trabzonspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.849 / def 0.970 | Trabzonspor attack 0.906 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Hatayspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 51% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.85) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.18
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
4%
24.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.21 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 13D 24L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 32W 17D 7L from 56 games, 2.02 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 13W 7D 7L from 27 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 17D 7L in their last 56 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hatayspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 63%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hatayspor) and 59% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hatayspor's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hatayspor's matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.81 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 51% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 25%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 57%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.