Hatayspor 2-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 39%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Göztepe travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatayspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Göztepe — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 1, Göztepe 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Göztepe 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 58% | Göztepe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.069 / defence 1.361 | Göztepe attack 1.000 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.092. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Hatayspor games / 24 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 39% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 36%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 39% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Hatayspor 1.56 / Göztepe 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.069 / def 1.361 | Göztepe attack 1.000 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Göztepe xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Hatayspor 2 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Göztepe part of?
Hatayspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 39% chance of winning, Göztepe a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hatayspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Göztepe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hatayspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.92
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.49
Göztepe xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.49 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 3D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.50 PPG, Göztepe on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hatayspor's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 11W 3D 10L in their last 24 games (1.50 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Göztepe away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.82 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
2
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Göztepe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Göztepe 1-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hatayspor at 64%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Hatayspor and 82% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hatayspor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Hatayspor's matches and 82% of Göztepe's.
Do Hatayspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Göztepe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Göztepe 2-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.49 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Göztepe attack 1.00 / defence 1.27, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 39% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 36%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 58%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.50 PPG, Göztepe 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.