Hatayspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.40 for Fatih Karagümrük. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hatayspor 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 61% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 2.27 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.272 / defence 1.340 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.800 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.198. Hatayspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Hatayspor games / 28 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Hatayspor (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Hatayspor 2.27 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.272 / def 1.340 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.800 / def 1.506 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Fatih Karagümrük xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Hatayspor 3 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 59% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.27) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.80x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.91
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.56
1.28
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
2%
47.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.28 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 13W 4D 11L from 28 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 10L across 28 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.43 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 5W 1D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.18 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 13W 4D 11L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 69%, Fatih Karagümrük 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Hatayspor and 69% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hatayspor's games and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Hatayspor's matches and 69% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 2.27 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.27 / defence 1.34 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.51, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 59% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 61%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.54 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.