Giresunspor 3-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Giresunspor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Giresunspor vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çotanak Stadyumu plays host to Giresunspor versus Altay in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 17 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Giresunspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor at Çotanak Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Altay (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Giresunspor's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Altay goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 31% versus Altay 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 25% | Altay 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.29 xG and Altay 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.864 / defence 1.028 | Altay attack 0.863 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.156. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Giresunspor games / 16 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 42% | Draw 29% | Altay 29%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Altay 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Giresunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Giresunspor 38% | Altay 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 42% | Draw 29% | Altay 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Giresunspor 1.29 / Altay 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.864 / def 1.028 | Altay attack 0.863 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Altay xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Altay kick off?
Giresunspor vs Altay kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Altay?
Giresunspor 3 - 1 Altay.
Where is Giresunspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Altay part of?
Giresunspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 42% chance of winning, Altay a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Giresunspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Altay in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Altay (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.86x) against Giresunspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.42
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.32
1.02
Altay xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.02 for Altay, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Giresunspor come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Altay sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Giresunspor against 1.12 for Altay. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Giresunspor's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Altay have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Giresunspor are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.31 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay in 69%.
Defensively: Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Altay away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Altay away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Altay been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Altay in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Altay have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when Altay 1-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Altay?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Altay see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 38%, Altay 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Giresunspor) and 75% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Giresunspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Giresunspor's games and 75% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Giresunspor's recent games and 75% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Altay tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Altay in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Altay.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Altay 3-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.29 xG and Altay 1.02 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Giresunspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Altay attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 42% | Draw 29% | Altay 29%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 25%, Altay 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Altay's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.19 PPG, Altay 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Altay (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.