Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gaziantep FK face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Trabzonspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Kalyon Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trabzonspor — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Trabzonspor, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 59% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Trabzonspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.963 / defence 1.148 | Trabzonspor attack 1.354 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.289. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Gaziantep FK games / 58 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 22% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 51%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 1.96. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 22% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.30 / Trabzonspor 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.963 / def 1.148 | Trabzonspor attack 1.354 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Trabzonspor xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 22% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Record (8 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 3 | Trabzonspor 5W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
22%
4.57
27%
3.71
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.30
2.00
Trabzonspor xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
33.81
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 2.00 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 19W 16D 23L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 26W 18D 14L from 58 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.26 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (14W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 26W 18D 14L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Trabzonspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.69 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 52%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Gaziantep FK) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 34%; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Gaziantep FK's games and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Gaziantep FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Trabzonspor attack 1.35 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 22% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 51%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.26 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.