Gaziantep FK 1-1 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gaziantep FK have posted 4W 5D 1L at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ümraniyespor (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Gaziantep FK. A 1.30 PPG lead over Ümraniyespor (1.50 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Ümraniyespor — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 80% versus Ümraniyespor 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gaziantep FK 60% | Ümraniyespor 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 2.00 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.243 / defence 0.942 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.951 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.222. Data: 43 Gaziantep FK games / 5 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 58% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Ümraniyespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Gaziantep FK 50% | Ümraniyespor 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 58% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Gaziantep FK 2.00 / Ümraniyespor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.243 / def 0.942 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.951 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ümraniyespor xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 58% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (1.24) and Ümraniyespor's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.95x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.68
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.10
1.09
Ümraniyespor xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
36.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.09 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gaziantep FK by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Ümraniyespor in 20%.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Ümraniyespor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor?
Ümraniyespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ümraniyespor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 80%, Ümraniyespor 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gaziantep FK) and 20% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 20% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 20% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Ümraniyespor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 2.00 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.09 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 58% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 20%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Ümraniyespor 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.