Gaziantep FK 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Göztepe at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Gaziantep FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.60 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Göztepe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 52% versus Göztepe 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 54% | Göztepe 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 2.09 xG and Göztepe 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.085 / defence 1.070 | Göztepe attack 0.798 / defence 1.558. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.222. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.558 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Gaziantep FK games / 33 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 16%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Göztepe 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Gaziantep FK 2.09 / Göztepe 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.085 / def 1.070 | Göztepe attack 0.798 / def 1.558 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Göztepe xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 60% chance of winning, Göztepe a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Göztepe in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.22
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.14
1.04
Göztepe xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
49.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.04 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 0.82 PPG from 33 outings (7W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Gaziantep FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 10W 5D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.12 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 20L in their last 33 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Göztepe away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.19 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
3
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Göztepe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gaziantep FK at 56%, Göztepe at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Gaziantep FK and 81% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gaziantep FK's games and 88% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 81% of Göztepe's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Göztepe tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, as Gaziantep FK and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 2.09 xG and Göztepe 1.04 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Göztepe attack 0.80 / defence 1.56, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 16%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Göztepe 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.