Gaziantep FK 1-2 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Gaziantep FK welcome Eyüpspor to Kalyon Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kalyon Stadyumu this season.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gaziantep FK are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Eyüpspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Eyüpspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.146 / defence 1.224 | Eyüpspor attack 0.597 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.336. Data: 49 Gaziantep FK games / 49 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 45% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Eyüpspor 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Eyüpspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 45% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.42 / Eyüpspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.146 / def 1.224 | Eyüpspor attack 0.597 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Eyüpspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 2 Eyüpspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 45% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (1.15) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.20
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.40
0.98
Eyüpspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.98 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 13D 18L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 49 outings (17W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.37 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 13W 6D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Eyüpspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.88 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
3
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Eyüpspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gaziantep FK) and 38% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 46% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 38% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.15 / defence 1.22 against Eyüpspor attack 0.60 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 45% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.37 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.