Gaziantep FK 0-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Gaziantep Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Gaziantep FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Alanyaspor have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Gaziantep FK.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Alanyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 54% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.63 xG and Alanyaspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.888 / defence 0.862 | Alanyaspor attack 0.931 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.198. Data: 70 Gaziantep FK games / 70 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Gaziantep FK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 40% | Alanyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.63 / Alanyaspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.888 / def 0.862 | Alanyaspor attack 0.931 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 53% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 5W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.04
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.59
0.96
Alanyaspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.96 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 24W 14D 32L from 70 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 25L across 70 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 16W 9D 10L from 35 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 7W 12D 16L across 35 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 24W 14D 32L in their last 70 games (1.23 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 21W 24D 25L in their last 70 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.63 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 46%, Alanyaspor 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gaziantep FK) and 43% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 51% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 43% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.63 xG and Alanyaspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.