Galatasaray 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rams Global Stadium plays host to Galatasaray versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 17). Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Galatasaray's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Galatasaray's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Galatasaray's favour (2.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Galatasaray edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Galatasaray 3–3 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 47% versus Fatih Karagümrük 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.394 / defence 0.804 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.914 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.285. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack rating of 1.394 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Galatasaray's last 51 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 51.
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.55 | Draw 4.96 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.58. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (65%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Galatasaray's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Galatasaray 50% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Rams Global Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Galatasaray 2.15 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.394 / def 0.804 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.914 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Rams Global Stadium.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Rams Global Stadium.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 65% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.39) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.91x) against Galatasaray's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Galatasaray's last 51 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.96
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
3.09
0.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
56.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.94 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 2.51 PPG on a 41W 5D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 17W 17D 17L from 51 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.72 PPG from their last 25 home games (22W 2D 1L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 9D 9L from their last 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.82 scored and 1.51 conceded. Fatih Karagümrük's attacking output running into Galatasaray's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 63%.
Defensively: Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Galatasaray (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Galatasaray
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 41W 5D 5L in their last 51 games (2.51 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.72 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Galatasaray have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won Galatasaray 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Galatasaray have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 60%, Fatih Karagümrük 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Galatasaray and 64% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Galatasaray's games and 68% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Galatasaray's matches and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Galatasaray's recent matches and 87% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Rams Global Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.94 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.39 / defence 0.80 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.