Fenerbahçe 4-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe and Rizespor meet at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 3W 2D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rizespor (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 7L across 7 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 0.90 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 71% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 57% | Rizespor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.98 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / defence 1.307 | Rizespor attack 0.654 / defence 1.645. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.095. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.645 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Fenerbahçe games / 14 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 16%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Rizespor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 83% | Rizespor 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.98 / Rizespor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / def 1.307 | Rizespor attack 0.654 / def 1.645 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 61% chance of winning, Rizespor a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.65x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.38
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.91
0.94
Rizespor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
44.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.94 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 7W 3D 4L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 10L across 14 games — 0.71 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 0W 0D 6L across 6 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.86 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 3W 1D 10L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Rizespor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.83 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-6 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Rizespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Fenerbahçe, 50% for Rizespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fenerbahçe and 83% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Fenerbahçe's games and 50% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 83% of Rizespor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Rizespor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 4-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.98 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Rizespor attack 0.65 / defence 1.65, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 16%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 57%, Rizespor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.