Fenerbahçe 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Kasımpaşa at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 5W 1D 1L from 7 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.29 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — 0.86 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.43 PPG ahead (2.29 vs 0.86). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 43% versus Kasımpaşa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fenerbahçe 29% | Kasımpaşa 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.53 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.069 / defence 1.110 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.624 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.073. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Fenerbahçe games / 7 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 67% | Kasımpaşa 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.53 / Kasımpaşa 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.069 / def 1.110 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.624 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Kasımpaşa xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 56% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.88
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.28
0.74
Kasımpaşa xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
4%
25.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.74 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 3L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 67%, Kasımpaşa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Fenerbahçe and 0% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 0% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.53 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.74 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.62 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 29%, Kasımpaşa 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.