Fenerbahçe 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Kasımpaşa.
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Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Kasımpaşa at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fenerbahçe have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Kasımpaşa have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Kasımpaşa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 69% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.539 / defence 1.036 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.331 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.207. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.539 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Fenerbahçe games / 62 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 58% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 58% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 77% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.69 / Kasımpaşa 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.539 / def 1.036 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.331 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Kasımpaşa xG
77%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 58% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (5 meetings): Fenerbahçe 5W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
58%
1.72
20%
4.88
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.35
1.66
Kasımpaşa xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
7%
14.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
1%
68.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.66 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 4.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 46W 9D 7L from 62 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 26L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 22W 5D 4L from 31 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.48 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 61%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 46W 9D 7L in their last 62 games (2.37 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.29 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 61%, Kasımpaşa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Fenerbahçe and 61% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fenerbahçe's games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 61% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.66 xG, a combined 4.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 1.04 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.33 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 58% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 69%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.