Fenerbahçe 4-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 4D 0L at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 1.10 PPG lead over Gaziantep FK (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side on paper — 8 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 63% and Gaziantep FK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Gaziantep FK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.372 / defence 1.028 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.057 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.217. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Fenerbahçe games / 62 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 4.35. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.96 / Gaziantep FK 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.372 / def 1.028 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.057 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 50% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK?
Record (9 meetings): Fenerbahçe 8W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.37) and Gaziantep FK's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.06x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.72
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.28
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
3%
30.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.32 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 42W 15D 5L from 62 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 24L across 62 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.01 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 22W 6D 2L from 30 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 42W 15D 5L in their last 62 games (2.27 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 20W 18D 24L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.40 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 27 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 9, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Fenerbahçe, 67% for Gaziantep FK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fenerbahçe and 70% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fenerbahçe's games and 67% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 70% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 4-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.37 / defence 1.03 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.