Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Fenerbahçe welcome Başakşehir to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 4D 0L at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fenerbahçe 1.80 PPG, Başakşehir 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fenerbahçe: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Başakşehir, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fenerbahçe a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 61% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Başakşehir 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.51 xG and Başakşehir 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.285 / defence 0.976 | Başakşehir attack 1.069 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.134. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Fenerbahçe games / 67 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Başakşehir 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.51 / Başakşehir 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.285 / def 0.976 | Başakşehir attack 1.069 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Başakşehir xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 42% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Record (9 meetings): Fenerbahçe 6W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.28) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.18
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.70
1.18
Başakşehir xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.18 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 45W 16D 6L from 67 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 22L across 67 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 24W 7D 2L from 33 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 14W 5D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.67 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 45W 16D 6L in their last 67 games (2.25 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 30W 15D 22L in their last 67 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Başakşehir away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.39 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 67%, Başakşehir 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fenerbahçe and 58% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Başakşehir in 30%; Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fenerbahçe's games and 52% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 58% of Başakşehir's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 3-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.51 xG and Başakşehir 1.18 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Başakşehir 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.