Fatih Karagümrük 3-4 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Trabzonspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 0D 5L from 6 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 3 for Trabzonspor and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–5 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Trabzonspor 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Trabzonspor 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.56 xG and Trabzonspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.540 / defence 1.234 | Trabzonspor attack 0.834 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.223. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.540 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Fatih Karagümrük games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 14% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 51%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 7.14 | Draw 2.86 | Trabzonspor 1.96. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fatih Karagümrük's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 0% | Trabzonspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 14% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.56 / Trabzonspor 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.540 / def 1.234 | Trabzonspor attack 0.834 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Trabzonspor xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 4 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 14% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 51% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
14%
7.02
35%
2.88
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
1.82
1.26
Trabzonspor xG
7.02
14%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
57%
1.76
Win to Nil
4%
24.71
29%
3.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 20.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.26 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 1W 0D 5L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 0.83 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fatih Karagümrük 33% BTTS, Trabzonspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Fatih Karagümrük and 0% for Trabzonspor.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 50%; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 33% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 0% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-4 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.56 xG and Trabzonspor 1.26 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.54 / defence 1.23 against Trabzonspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 6/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 14% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 51%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Trabzonspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.