Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Başakşehir at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.57 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.57 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 2W 0D 5L from 7 Süper Lig matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.71 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.57 vs 0.86. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Başakşehir 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Başakşehir 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.68 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.121 / defence 1.019 | Başakşehir attack 0.743 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.044. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Fatih Karagümrük games / 7 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 17%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Başakşehir 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.68 / Başakşehir 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.121 / def 1.019 | Başakşehir attack 0.743 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Başakşehir xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 59% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.17
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.48
0.79
Başakşehir xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
31.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.79 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Başakşehir in 29%.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Başakşehir away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 2.33 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Başakşehir 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fatih Karagümrük and 67% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 67% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 67% of Başakşehir's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Başakşehir 3-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.68 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Başakşehir attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 17%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Başakşehir 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.