Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 37%, yet in-form Adana Demirspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Adana Demirspor arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 3 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 66% and Adana Demirspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 64% | Adana Demirspor 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.908 / defence 1.039 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.104 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.206. Data: 44 Fatih Karagümrük games / 44 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 / Adana Demirspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.908 / def 1.039 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.104 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 3W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.91x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.10x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.34
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.86
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.38 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 15D 15L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 25W 11D 8L from 44 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Adana Demirspor are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.16 scored and 1.23 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 14W 15D 15L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 5-0 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
4
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Fatih Karagümrük, 76% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fatih Karagümrük and 62% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 76% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 62% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Adana Demirspor 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 33%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 64%, Adana Demirspor 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.