Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Göztepe travel to to take on Erzurumspor FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzurumspor FK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK at this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Göztepe — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Erzurumspor FK at 1.40 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Erzurumspor FK in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 30% versus Göztepe 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Erzurumspor FK 50% | Göztepe 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.02 xG and Göztepe 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.690 / defence 1.119 | Göztepe attack 1.463 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe have an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Erzurumspor FK games / 44 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 18% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 61%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Göztepe 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Göztepe 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 18% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.02 / Göztepe 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.690 / def 1.119 | Göztepe attack 1.463 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Göztepe xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 18% chance of winning, Göztepe a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
18%
5.51
21%
4.81
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
3.07
2.05
Göztepe xG
5.51
18%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.77
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
42.82
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 2.05 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzurumspor FK on 1.40 PPG, Göztepe on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Erzurumspor FK have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Göztepe travel well.
The Goals Picture
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 2.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Göztepe in 70%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 1.80 PPG; Göztepe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Göztepe in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 20%, Göztepe 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Erzurumspor FK and 100% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 80% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Erzurumspor FK's matches and 100% of Göztepe's.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.