Bodrum FK 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 5 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Bodrum FK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Bodrum FK against 1.20 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Bodrum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 25% versus Kayserispor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 31% | Kayserispor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.15 xG and Kayserispor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.697 / defence 0.847 | Kayserispor attack 0.757 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.214. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Bodrum FK games / 54 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 42% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Kayserispor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodrum FK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 25% | Kayserispor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 42% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Bodrum FK 1.15 / Kayserispor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.697 / def 0.847 | Kayserispor attack 0.757 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Kayserispor xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor?
Bodrum FK 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 42% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bodrum FK and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Kayserispor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.70) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.76x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.84
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
1.92
0.78
Kayserispor xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 0.78 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodrum FK come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 2D 10L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Bodrum FK against 0.94 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodrum FK's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Kayserispor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.25 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
2
Draws
0
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Kayserispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Kayserispor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Kayserispor 1-1 Bodrum FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodrum FK tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Bodrum FK) and 38% (Kayserispor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Bodrum FK) and 50% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 62% of games; Kayserispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 38% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Bodrum FK and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.15 xG and Kayserispor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.70 / defence 0.85 against Kayserispor attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 42% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 23%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 31%, Kayserispor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 0.88 PPG, Kayserispor 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.