Beşiktaş 2-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.40 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Trabzonspor and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Beşiktaş 0–3 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 62% | Trabzonspor 60%). Note also that Trabzonspor surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Beşiktaş recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.954 / defence 0.992 | Trabzonspor attack 1.177 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.187. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 59 games and Trabzonspor's last 58.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.04 | Draw 3.24 | Trabzonspor 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 40% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.31 / Trabzonspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.954 / def 0.992 | Trabzonspor attack 1.177 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 33% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 59 games and Trabzonspor's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.24
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.70
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.39 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 33W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 27W 10D 21L from 58 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.91 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 28 home games (18W 6D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 5D 15L from their last 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.69 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 games (1.91 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 21L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.14 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Trabzonspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Beşiktaş and 68% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Beşiktaş's matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 82% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Trabzonspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.39 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 33% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 36%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 62%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.91 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.