Beşiktaş 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tüpraş Stadyumu: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
Samsunspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 42% versus Samsunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 45% | Samsunspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Samsunspor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.952 / defence 0.881 | Samsunspor attack 0.682 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.202. Data: 67 Beşiktaş games / 31 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 40% | Samsunspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Beşiktaş 1.64 / Samsunspor 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.952 / def 0.881 | Samsunspor attack 0.682 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Samsunspor xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 58% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 0.95x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.68x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 67/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
58%
1.73
27%
3.64
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.36
0.72
Samsunspor xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
3%
35.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.72 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 14W 5D 12L from 31 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 14L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.19 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 4D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 14W 5D 12L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.73 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 40%, Samsunspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 60% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Samsunspor 0.72 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Samsunspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 15%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 45%, Samsunspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Samsunspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG, Samsunspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.