Beşiktaş 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beşiktaş, 1.10 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Konyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / defence 0.873 | Konyaspor attack 0.739 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.192. Data: 61 Beşiktaş games / 61 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Beşiktaş 1.73 / Konyaspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / def 0.873 | Konyaspor attack 0.739 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Konyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 19 February 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 58% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.74x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
58%
1.73
29%
3.49
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.50
0.77
Konyaspor xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.77 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 13D 13L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 25D 19L from 61 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 13D 9L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 35W 13D 13L in their last 61 games (1.93 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 25D 19L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.20 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Konyaspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 60% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 57% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Konyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.